Proven Signal Performance
Based on historical signals (2020–2026). Not a guarantee of future results.
No complex portfolio rules. No optimization. Just systematic signal usage.
Select the highest-ranked stocks from the signal list.
No re-ranking, no adjustments. Just hold until the period ends.
Replace positions as they expire with the next top-ranked signals.
Our signals call for exiting all equity positions as soon as possible during periods of broad market distress, which accounted for 2.2% of trading days from January 2020 to April 2026. We will issue alerts for such situations — please monitor our signals page accordingly.
Hypothetical growth based on CAGR, Jan 2020 – Apr 2026. Equal-weight portfolio vs S&P 500.
Fewer slots = higher returns, more volatility · More slots = smoother, lower returns
Sharpe ratio across 1–10 slot portfolios. The sweet spot is 3–4 slots: enough diversification to tame volatility without diluting the edge.*
Performance remains strong across different portfolio sizes. All metrics net of transaction costs.*
| Slots | CAGR | Vol | Sharpe | Max DD | Win Rate | Profit Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 74.4% | 41.1% | 1.56 | -35.5% | 62.9% | 2.54x |
| 4 | 69.1% | 33.9% | Best1.72 | -27.4% | 60.8% | 2.35x |
| 10 | 49.5% | 30.4% | 1.47 | -30.7% | 56.2% | 1.91x |
| SPY | 14.2% | 20.5% | 0.75 | -33.7% | — | — |
| QQQ | 18.8% | 25.1% | 0.81 | -35.1% | — | — |
Tested across 30 different start dates spanning 6 weeks, returns stayed remarkably stable. The signal works across the calendar, not from lucky timing of a few big moves.
Even the most diversified 10-stock version delivered 3x the S&P 500's annual return, nearly double its Sharpe ratio, and a shallower max drawdown.
This simple buy-and-hold strategy uses zero portfolio sophistication, other than selecting top ranking stocks and exiting during broad market distress, yet matches a fully tuned version. The edge comes from the signal itself, not complex trading rules.
Profit factor drops smoothly from 2.5x (2 slots) to 1.9x (10 slots), confirming that our ranking successfully orders stocks by expected performance.
The results are driven by the signal itself — not complex trading rules.
A cohort is the group of stocks bought on the same day and sold together after 15 trading days. The number of stocks in a cohort is the slot count. More slots adds diversification and reduces concentration risk.
Because every cohort is held for a fixed 15 days, the portfolio is locked into a specific pattern of turnover. This creates path dependency: depending on which day you start, the short-term P&L path can look very different. Over long periods the differences average out, but in the short term they can be significant.
One way to reduce path dependency is to stagger multiple cohorts. For example, in a 2-cohort strategy you start cohort 1 on day 1 and cohort 2 on day 8. From day 8 onward the portfolio is invested across two overlapping cohorts, each on a different schedule — smoothing returns and reducing sensitivity to any single entry date.
Not every signal wins
Win rates around 60% mean roughly 4 in 10 trades lose. That's normal and expected.
Returns come from many trades over time
No single trade makes or breaks the strategy. The edge compounds across hundreds of positions.
Holding periods are about 3 weeks
Signals use a fixed 15 trading-day hold. This isn't day trading or long-term investing.
Drawdowns happen
Even the best configuration saw a -27% drawdown. Be prepared for temporary losses.
Contrarian metrics averaged across 30 runs with different start dates (30 consecutive trading days beginning Jan 2, 2020). Equity curve shown from a single representative run (Jan 2, 2020). Past performance is not indicative of future results. These backtest results are based on historical data and do not account for all real-world factors such as liquidity, slippage beyond modeled costs, or market impact. This is not financial advice. All investing involves risk including possible loss of principal.
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